{"id":243,"date":"2024-04-29T15:36:13","date_gmt":"2024-04-29T15:36:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.metroabundance.org\/?p=243"},"modified":"2025-05-30T15:34:51","modified_gmt":"2025-05-30T22:34:51","slug":"how-inclusionary-are-market-rate-rentals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.metroabundance.org\/how-inclusionary-are-market-rate-rentals\/","title":{"rendered":"How &#8220;inclusionary&#8221; are market-rate rentals?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">An ambitious new <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/mgaleg.maryland.gov\/mgawebsite\/Legislation\/Details\/HB0538\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">state law<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> championed by Maryland Governor Wes Moore will allow denser multifamily housing within three quarters of a mile of the state\u2019s many rail transit stations. The law also includes an inclusionary zoning (IZ) provision, requiring 15% of new units be set aside as affordable.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">However, like many local IZ ordinances, it defines \u201caffordable\u201d as <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">available to people making up to 60% of the area median income (AMI), adjusted for family size<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. To occupy such a unit, applicants must document their eligibility, which takes time, and then pay either 30% of their income or the listed rent, whichever is lower.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But does Maryland need mandates to deliver new housing at this price point? In the Baltimore and DC metro areas, where most Marylanders live, over a third of recently built rental housing units are rented at rates that qualify as affordable. To be sure, that third includes some IZ and directly subsidized units. But most new rentals are market rate, and a solid proportion of those turn out to be affordable to low-income households.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Incomes and outcomes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But this isn\u2019t really a story about the power of the market. It\u2019s a story about area median income. In metropolitan Baltimore, a family of four making $73,000 in 2024 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/dhcd.maryland.gov\/HousingDevelopment\/Documents\/rhf\/LIHTC-Income-Rent-Limits-2024.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">qualifies<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> for 60% AMI affordable housing, where it would pay $1,825 per month for rent, utilities included. A third of new market-rate three-bedroom units in Baltimore are rented at around that level.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Baltimore is typical, as it turns out. In most U.S. metro areas, a substantial share of rentals constructed since 2010 were, in 2021 and 2022, affordable at 60% of AMI. The below map shows this share across regions. You can also check out maps showing rentals affordable at <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/60zvw\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">80%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/kR0ym\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">120%<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> of AMI.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Market affordable\" aria-label=\"Map\" id=\"datawrapper-chart-TA7Zm\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/TA7Zm\/6\/\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;\" height=\"455\" data-external=\"1\"><\/iframe><script type=\"text\/javascript\">!function(){\"use strict\";window.addEventListener(\"message\",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(\"iframe\");for(var t in a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data[\"datawrapper-height\"][t]+\"px\";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();<\/script>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">It might be surprising that roughly a third of new rentals are within reach of low income renters in expensive metropolitan areas like Greater Seattle and Austin. The reason is that these metros, like Greater Baltimore, have high median family incomes. Great jobs mean great incomes for many families in those regions. In metro Seattle, median family income is $140,700. By standard administrative definitions, that means a unit renting at $2,100 per month is affordable to a family of four that earns 60% of AMI.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In some metro areas, such as those of Raleigh and St. Louis, the majority of recently-built rentals are affordable to families earning 60% of AMI. In the metro area of slow-growing St. Louis, extremely low rents on a fifth of recently-built rentals suggest that a substantial share of new units are deed-restricted affordable housing.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">At the opposite extreme are Florida metros, including Greater Orlando, where just 12% of recently-built rentals are affordable at 60% of AMI. Taking into account that this includes subsidized housing and some statistical noise, it seems that very little Florida development is affordable at market rates. One reason is that rent is somewhat higher in Orlando than Raleigh. A less obvious reason is that retirees are included in AMI: Florida has many homeowning seniors with low current incomes. As a result, all AMI measures are low relative to the distribution of renter incomes.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But these comparisons don\u2019t really tell us how well Orlando and Raleigh\u2019s markets are serving renters. Rather, they tell us how those two markets look when filtered through the administrative lens of AMI.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table aligncenter\"><table><tbody><tr><td colspan=\"2\"><strong> Potemkin affordability around the country <\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Denver, CO<\/span><\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.planetizen.com\/news\/2022\/06\/117474-denver-adopts-mandatory-inclusionary-zoning\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Policy<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> requires units affordable at 60 to 90% of AMI.<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Florida<\/span><\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jdsupra.com\/legalnews\/live-local-act-rent-2024-limits-5275989\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Live Local Act<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> provides zoning relief and tax incentives for units affordable at 120% of AMI.<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Marlborough, MA<\/span><\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/ecode360.com\/9216877?highlight=affordable&amp;searchId=22535577029416262#search-highlight-9216867-0\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">City ordinance<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> requires units affordable at 80% of AMI.<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Montgomery County, MD<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The lauded <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.montgomerycountymd.gov\/DHCA\/MPDU\/mpdu-rentals.html\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">MPDU<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> program requires units affordable at&nbsp; 65 and 70% of AMI.<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">New York, NY<\/span><\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/council.nyc.gov\/land-use\/plans\/mih-zqa\/mih\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">One of <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">four options<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> in the city's Mandatory Inclusionary Housing policy requires units affordable at 70, 90 and 115% of AMI.&nbsp;<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Redmond, WA<\/span><\/td><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">One of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.columbian.com\/news\/2023\/dec\/09\/is-mandatory-inclusionary-zoning-the-right-tool-for-vancouver-city-hasnt-explored-it\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">two options<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> in local IZ policy requires units affordable at 80% of AMI.<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Claremont, CA<\/span><\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/ecode360.com\/43834616\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">City ordinance<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> requires units affordable at 60% and 110% of AMI.<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Who does IZ serve?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">None of this means that market-rate new construction is affordable to poor people \u2013 it just means that 60% of AMI is not necessarily poor. And in most of the US, households earning 60% of AMI are well served by the market.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Of course, the filtering of older housing units is a big part of that. But, as this analysis shows, a substantial share of new housing in most metropolitan areas will be within range for households with decent, below-average incomes.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">That\u2019s great. But it also means that IZ programs with high cutoffs are offering Potemkin affordability. Landlords like it because 60% AMI tenants are within their normal market range and have fewer credit and income challenges than poor tenants. Politicians like it because they can claim credit for \u201caffordable\u201d units without making hard budgetary choices. But e<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">ffectively providing affordable housing for the poorest families requires much larger tax abatements or subsidies.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Potemkin affordability is popular: a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/inclusionaryhousing.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/NPH-IHinCA2006.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">2016 report<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> found that just 4% of IZ units created in California were affordable at 30% AMI or less. Another quarter went to people in the 30 to 50% AMI band; the rest were for people with jobs such as \u201cschool teacher\u201d and \u201ccivil engineer.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">But Potemkin affordability is not without costs. Yuri Geylik, co-founder of the affordable housing consultancy MGNY, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/mgnyconsulting.com\/how-to-rent-the-130-ami-units\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">estimates<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> that rent in deed-restricted units needs to be discounted 10-15% below market rate to attract tenants. In other words, even in the tight New York City rental market, a $200 per month rent discount is not worth the hassle and delay of qualifying for an affordable unit to middle-class tenants. And that doesn\u2019t even count the administrative costs to the property manager.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">At the opposite end of Interstate 80, property managers have even greater difficulty filling units reserved for middle-income tenants. J.K. Dineen <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/sf\/article\/missing-middle-class-housing-19408027.php\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">recently reported<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> that 85% of new San Francisco apartments reserved for 100-150% AMI familiesin that category are sitting vacant because proving eligibility is a \u201ctortured and time-consuming process with as much paperwork as it would take to buy a home.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Putting assistance into focus<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Taken together with previous research on inclusionary zoning, we can draw a few clear takeaways from this analysis for affordability policy:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">First,<\/span><strong> targeting affordable units to families at or above 60% of AMI may indirectly hurt those in much greater need. <\/strong><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Not only does a high-threshold IZ policy direct private subsidies toward those with above-poverty incomes, but it may also discourage construction, putting moderate-income and poor people in competition for the same limited pool of existing rentals.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">When inclusionary zoning policies discourage market rate production, as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ternercenter.berkeley.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/Inclusionary-Zoning-Paper-April-2024-Final.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Shane Phillips estimates<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, cities lose a large number of new units affordable to households earning 50 to 100% of AMI. And poorly-targeted IZ can use up political capital and attention that would be better focused on those who cannot afford market-rate housing.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Second, <\/span><strong>assistance programs should be fully funded via tax abatements or vouchers.<\/strong><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Although outside the scope of this analysis, a strong consensus is emerging that unfunded IZ does more harm than good. Funded IZ can still pose administrative difficulties, but it is much more likely to result in more, rather than less, housing for people with below-median incomes. Funded IZ policies in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ballardspahr.com\/insights\/alerts-and-articles\/2023\/12\/new-inclusionary-housing-mandates-for-baltimore-city\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Baltimore<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sightline.org\/2024\/02\/23\/now-fully-funded-portlands-affordability-mandate-should-be-a-model\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Portland<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> provide possible models.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Third, <\/span><strong>policies that unlock lower-cost housing types will reach deep into the income distribution. <\/strong><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">In every metro area, at least some new housing is affordable to low-income families. No-frills apartments and build-to-rent subdivisions are good candidates for housing that is attainable to low-income families.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Usually, the IZ debate is over whether IZ discourages housing production so much that the loss of market-rate units is not worth the gain in affordable units. But that question presupposes that market-rate units are out of reach for the tenants to whom the affordable units are targeted.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Often, that\u2019s not the case: many new, market-rate apartments are affordable to the very families that IZ programs are intended to help. Policymakers should respond to this finding by narrowing the focus of subsidies and accelerating the production of market-rate housing.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><span class=\"il\">Salim<\/span>&nbsp;Furth is a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Rochester.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Appendix: Methods<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">I used 2021 and 2022 American Community Survey (ACS) data (via <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/usa.ipums.org\/usa\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">IPUMS<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">) on incomes and rents, and the family median income <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/data.census.gov\/table?q=B19113:%20Median%20Family%20Income%20in%20the%20Past%2012%20Months%20(in%202022%20Inflation-Adjusted%20Dollars)\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">metric<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> that grounds HUD\u2019s AMI calculations. None of the data are perfect; actual incomes are <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/file\/d\/11JmlEfS_GeFUHN1MSoe7221a0oymWwzM\/view\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">higher<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> than those reported to ACS survey-takers, for example. My AMI calculations do not perfectly match HUDs, primarily because HUD divides some metro areas, especially in the Northeast, into bespoke sub-regions.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The key choice in my analysis is how to assign housing units to family size. The larger I set the \u201cfeasible family size\u201d for each unit, the more likely it will be marked \u201caffordable\u201d, because HUD\u2019s affordability formula sets a higher income, and thus higher potential rent, for larger families.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The median American home has an equal number of bedrooms and occupants. But there\u2019s plenty of variation. For each rented home in the data, I estimated \u201cfeasible family size\u201d based on the number of bedrooms, rooms, and occupants reported to the ACS:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">FEASIBLE FAMILY SIZE = min (rooms, 2*bedrooms, max(bedrooms+1, observed occupants))<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">To this formula, I made one exception: 1 bedroom, 2 room apartments with 1 observed occupant are assigned a feasible family size of 1, not 2. This exception reduces the number of rental units that I mark as affordable.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The map displays only metropolitan areas in which there are at least 150 observations of renters in units built since 2010.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">This analysis ignores most distinctions among new rental units, especially location and amenities. For example, 1-bedroom apartments in Boston\u2019s core neighborhoods are 30 percent more expensive than in the affluent suburbs along Route 128. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"An ambitious new state law championed by Maryland Governor Wes Moore will allow denser multifamily housing within three quarters of a mile of the state\u2019s many rail transit stations. The law also includes an inclusionary zoning (IZ) provision, requiring 15% of new units be set aside as affordable. However, like many local IZ ordinances, it [&hellip;]","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":1165,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"filter_tag":[13],"filter_status":[],"filter_theme":[],"filter_state":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<title>How &quot;inclusionary&quot; are market-rate rentals? - Metropolitan Abundance Project<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.metroabundance.org\/how-inclusionary-are-market-rate-rentals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How &quot;inclusionary&quot; are market-rate rentals? - Metropolitan Abundance Project\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"An ambitious new state law championed by Maryland Governor Wes Moore will allow denser multifamily housing within three quarters of a mile of the state\u2019s many rail transit stations. 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